Surging and the Media

Although it really shouldn’t be, the public’s perception of an electoral race these days is partially and arguably strongly dependent on the narrative played out in the media. As the traditional news cycle has been replaced by an ongoing stream of soundbites and stories, actual policy positions can many times be trumped by a good one-liner, an pronounced bickering or schism between two candidates or an extraneous poll. The media, in other words, will opt to cover a more compelling “story” rather than give an evenhanded play-by-play of the facts. This, in some ways, is good news for Barack Obama. Here’s why:

The most exciting story for a news outlet to cover is a close race for the primaries. Coupled with that, another compelling storyline is that of a political outsider making a last minute surge against the predicted political Goliath. Thus, if a poll comes out saying that Hillary Clinton has retained a lead in Iowa or New Hampshire then it won’t get much news play; it’s not exciting because it’s a predictable old story. But if a poll is released that shows Barack Obama taking a lead in Iowa or narrowing a gap in New Hampshire it gets tremendously more media coverage and reaches a much broader audience. In other words, the “Clinton is inevitable” storyline is passé and the “Obama is strengthening” narrative is in.

This has a huge effect on the race, in our humble opinion. Part of the reason Clinton has appeared unbeatable until now was because the news media anointed her to be so. People outside the early primary states didn’t give other candidates a close look because, according to the media, it was more than likely that Hillary Clinton would be the nominee. But now that this isn’t such popular rhetoric anymore, any piece of good news for Obama mushrooms into a huge news story and feeds the notion that the insurgent has all the power over the declining and suddenly less popular Clinton. This may be completely detached from the substance of the campaign, but superficiality as dictated by the media can play a profound role in swaying voters in a given direction.