Why Mitt Romney won't win

A hypothetical: at the next Republican debate, the moderators--in an attempt to really spark up some distinctions between candidates--decide to ask some provocative questions. The subject of religion comes around and Mitt Romney is faced with the following: "Governor Romney, in the 1820's, a young man named Joseph Smith, claiming to have been visited by a resurrected prophet named Moroni, was said to have unearthed a series of gold plates which contained record of God's dealings with ancient Israelites. Over the next two years, Smith translated these plates into English in what is now known as The Book of Mormon. Said Smith, 'the Book of Mormon was the most correct of any book on earth, and the keystone of our religion, and a man would get nearer to God by abiding by its precepts, than by any other book.' Do you agree with this statement?"

What would his response be? Probably something on the order of "My faith informs my values and sustains me, but it does not speak for me and I do not speak for it, etc." But it wouldn't really matter what his response is because the response is almost irrelevant. The question is what is important. Romney is in a precarious position: he needs the support of the Evangelical community to buttress his run for the Presidency. He (and all the other candidates for that matter) can talk tough on national security and give rhetorical assent to tax cuts, but Giuliani pretty much has that side of the market cornered and in order to seem like a legitimate opposition, Romney has been forced to paint himself as a more "well-rounded" conservative by adding morality and family values into the picture. BUT, in order to assuage anxieties about is pro-choice past and in order to compete against Huckabee in the Evangelical market, Romney has to invoke his religion and talk about it with specific and focused zeal.

And this is a tightrope. Mitt Romney can talk about the role of religion in civic life and how it shapes his conservative beliefs, but there is nothing he can do in a few months time to change the overwhelming public opinion about Mormonism. Americans to begin with don't know much about Mormonism, so a few negative sensationalist statements on the issue will easily sway their opinion of it. And moreover, 31% of Americans flat out don't believe Mormons are Christians. Finally, 25% of Americans are less likely to vote for a Mormon candidate (versus only 5% who are more likely, see all data here). So Mitt Romney has a Catch-22: he can let his faith sit like an elephant in the room while his opponents proclaim their Christian credentials or he can start to openly discuss it and invite a discussion on the theological merits of Mormonism which is sure to faze more voters than it converts.

Evangelicals and the conservative community aren't just looking for someone with a pro-life record. And when they say they want a candidate that shares their values, they don't just mean that they want someone who agrees with them on the issues. What they mean is that they want someone who not only falls in line with their priorities, but also someone who fundamentally adheres to the specific religious tenets which shape their lives. And if the founder of your religion prioritizes a different book than the Old Testament, for example, then you'll have a hard time getting the votes you want.