Le Tas and Me

Wednesday, December 19, 2007

Can you hear me now?

Something to chew on: most polls of early voting states gauge a wide sample of landline phone owners for a number of reasons, which means they leave out an estimated 7-9% of the general phone-possessing populace that relies solely on cell phones for telecommunication. This cell-only population that is excluded from polls isn't very substantial and most likely is composed of people with a variegated spectrum of political opinions, but it could change the final results of voting in states like Iowa where sheer voter turnout will usually carry the day. Cell-only users are disproportionately younger and more likely to be liberal and white; many are college kids. This is a demographic that Barack Obama polls stunningly well with. Thus, early polling data could be minutely under representing Obama's final support come voting day. Of course, this is assuming that voters in that age demographic will reliably turn out on January 3rd, something that the Obama camp should cross their fingers for but should not bank on.

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